Timeline Anchoring is a cognitive bias where individuals disproportionately rely on the initial piece of information presented regarding a time estimate or deadline, even when that information is arbitrary. This initial “anchor” then unduly influences subsequent estimations, leading to insufficient adjustment away from the starting point. It affects judgment in project planning and negotiation contexts.
Mechanism
The bias operates by establishing a mental reference point that biases the subsequent cognitive processing of time-related data. When confronted with new information, individuals tend to adjust their estimates only incrementally from this anchor, rather than re-evaluating the timeline from a neutral perspective. This heuristic can lead to unrealistic deadlines or resource misallocations.
Methodology
Counteracting Timeline Anchoring requires explicit strategies such as independent parallel estimation by multiple parties, a critical examination of the initial anchor’s relevance, and a data-driven approach to project scheduling based on empirical performance. This methodology promotes objective timeline assessments, preventing irrational adherence to arbitrary initial estimates in crypto project development or RFQ response planning.
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