# Hayes Predicts Crypto Surge Post-Treasury Account Fill ▴ News

**Published:** 2025-09-21
**Categories:** News

---

The confluence of macroeconomic policy and digital asset market structure is approaching a critical juncture. Arthur Hayes posits that the completion of the U.S. [Treasury General Account](https://prime.greeks.live/area/treasury-general-account/?utm_source=options.greeks.live&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=satellite) (TGA) replenishment to its $850 billion target will release sequestered liquidity into private markets. This influx is anticipated to catalyze a sustained upward trajectory for crypto assets, reflecting a fundamental shift in capital availability. While historical correlations between net liquidity and crypto market movements are subject to analytical debate, the mechanism of capital reallocation from sovereign accounts to broader financial ecosystems remains a potent driver.

The [Federal Reserve](https://prime.greeks.live/area/federal-reserve/?utm_source=options.greeks.live&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=satellite)’s recent 25 basis point rate cut, the first since 2024, further complicates this dynamic, as markets have shown immediate, albeit transient, price adjustments, with Bitcoin briefly dipping below $115,000. This highlights the intricate interplay between fiscal operations, monetary policy, and the responsive nature of digital asset valuations, underscoring the need for a comprehensive systemic understanding to navigate emergent market phases.

The impending completion of the U.S. Treasury General Account funding is projected to unleash significant [market liquidity](https://prime.greeks.live/area/market-liquidity/?utm_source=options.greeks.live&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=satellite), positioning crypto assets for a potential “up only” phase, despite short-term volatility induced by Federal Reserve rate adjustments.

- **Treasury General Account Target** ▴ $850 billion

- **Current TGA Balance** ▴ Over $807 billion

- **Federal Reserve Rate Cut** ▴ 25 basis points

Signal Acquired from ▴ <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-up-only-mode-us-tga-850b-arthur-hayes?utm_source=options.greeks.live&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=satellite" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Cointelegraph</a> 

![Precision-engineered abstract components depict institutional digital asset derivatives trading. A central sphere, symbolizing core asset price discovery, supports intersecting elements representing multi-leg spreads and aggregated inquiry](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/institutional-digital-asset-derivatives-rfq-execution-microstructure-optimization.jpg)

![Abstract geometric forms depict a sophisticated RFQ protocol engine. A central mechanism, representing price discovery and atomic settlement, integrates horizontal liquidity streams](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/institutional-digital-asset-derivatives-rfq-protocol-engine-2.jpg)

## Glossary

<a href="https://prime.greeks.live/area/treasury-general-account/?utm_source=options.greeks.live&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=satellite" class="glossary-item-box">
![A sleek, dark metallic surface features a cylindrical module with a luminous blue top, embodying a Prime RFQ control for RFQ protocol initiation. This institutional-grade interface enables high-fidelity execution of digital asset derivatives block trades, ensuring private quotation and atomic settlement](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/institutional-digital-asset-derivatives-rfq-protocol-engine-module-for-high-fidelity-execution-and-liquidity-aggregation.jpg)

## Treasury General Account

Meaning ▴ The Treasury General Account (TGA) is the primary operating account of the U. </a><a href="https://prime.greeks.live/area/federal-reserve/?utm_source=options.greeks.live&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=satellite" class="glossary-item-box">
![A sleek, abstract system interface with a central spherical lens representing real-time Price Discovery and Implied Volatility analysis for institutional Digital Asset Derivatives. Its precise contours signify High-Fidelity Execution and robust RFQ protocol orchestration, managing latent liquidity and minimizing slippage for optimized Alpha Generation](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/high-fidelity-institutional-digital-asset-derivatives-execution-via-optimized-rfq-protocols-enhancing-market-microstructure.jpg)

## Federal Reserve

Meaning ▴ The Federal Reserve is the central banking system of the United States, responsible for conducting monetary policy, regulating banking institutions, maintaining the stability of the financial system, and providing financial services to depository institutions and the U. </a><a href="https://prime.greeks.live/area/market-liquidity/?utm_source=options.greeks.live&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=satellite" class="glossary-item-box">
![Translucent geometric planes, speckled with micro-droplets, converge at a central nexus, emitting precise illuminated lines. This embodies Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Market Microstructure, detailing RFQ protocol efficiency, High-Fidelity Execution pathways, and granular Atomic Settlement within a transparent Liquidity Pool](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/institutional-digital-asset-rfq-protocol-market-microstructure.jpg)

## Market Liquidity

Meaning ▴ Market Liquidity quantifies the ease and efficiency with which an asset or security can be bought or sold in the market without causing a significant fluctuation in its price. </a>

**Tags:** [Risk-Adjusted Returns](https://options.greeks.live/area/risk-adjusted-returns/), [Systemic Consequence](https://options.greeks.live/area/systemic-consequence/), [Federal Reserve](https://options.greeks.live/area/federal-reserve/), [Market Liquidity](https://options.greeks.live/area/market-liquidity/), [Macroeconomic Factors](https://options.greeks.live/area/macroeconomic-factors/), [Capital Flow](https://options.greeks.live/area/capital-flow/)	

## Discover More

- 
### [Crypto Market Rally Hinges on US Treasury Liquidity Target](https://options.greeks.live/news/crypto-market-rally-hinges-on-us-treasury-liquidity-target/)
![Abstract machinery visualizes an institutional RFQ protocol engine, demonstrating high-fidelity execution of digital asset derivatives. It depicts seamless liquidity aggregation and sophisticated algorithmic trading, crucial for prime brokerage capital efficiency and optimal market microstructure.](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/institutional-digital-asset-derivatives-rfq-execution-system-1.jpg)

Systemic liquidity recalibration is imminent as Treasury fiscal operations conclude, creating favorable conditions for digital asset valuation.

- 
### [Fed Comments Drive Crypto Sentiment to Greed, Sparking Market Rally](https://options.greeks.live/news/fed-comments-drive-crypto-sentiment-to-greed-sparking-market-rally/)
![Curved, segmented surfaces in blue, beige, and teal, with a transparent cylindrical element against a dark background. This abstractly depicts volatility surfaces and market microstructure, facilitating high-fidelity execution via RFQ protocols for digital asset derivatives, enabling price discovery and revealing latent liquidity for institutional trading.](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/optimized-rfq-protocol-dynamics-for-institutional-crypto-derivatives.jpg)

The Federal Reserve's dovish signals at Jackson Hole have reconfigured market dynamics, catalyzing a significant capital inflow into digital assets.

- 
### [Arthur Hayes Predicts Crypto Market Rally Post-Treasury General Account Fill](https://options.greeks.live/news/arthur-hayes-predicts-crypto-market-rally-post-treasury-general-account-fill/)
![Abstract, layered spheres symbolize complex market microstructure and liquidity pools. A central reflective conduit represents RFQ protocols enabling block trade execution and precise price discovery for multi-leg spread strategies, ensuring high-fidelity execution within institutional trading of digital asset derivatives.](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/institutional-digital-asset-derivatives-rfq-protocol-engine-for-high-fidelity.jpg)

The strategic interplay of macroeconomic liquidity and central bank policy establishes critical inflection points for digital asset market trajectories.

- 
### [Crypto Markets Rally amid Positive ETF Flows and Policy Shifts](https://options.greeks.live/news/crypto-markets-rally-amid-positive-etf-flows-and-policy-shifts/)
![A central, metallic, multi-bladed mechanism, symbolizing a core execution engine or RFQ hub, emits luminous teal data streams. These streams traverse through fragmented, transparent structures, representing dynamic market microstructure, high-fidelity price discovery, and liquidity aggregation. Underlying infrastructure signifies robust Principal's operational framework supporting institutional-grade digital asset derivatives.](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/principal-grade-digital-asset-derivatives-rfq-protocol-engine-facilitating-high-fidelity-execution-and-optimal-price-discovery-across-fragmented-market-microstructure.jpg)

Market architecture adapts to regulatory clarity and increased capital allocation, signaling a maturation of institutional digital asset integration.

- 
### [Novel Altcoin ETFs Exceed Volume Forecasts on Trading Debut](https://options.greeks.live/news/novel-altcoin-etfs-exceed-volume-forecasts-on-trading-debut/)
![A polished, dark spherical component anchors a sophisticated system architecture, flanked by a precise green data bus. This represents a high-fidelity execution engine, enabling institutional-grade RFQ protocols for digital asset derivatives. It embodies the precision of private quotation and efficient latent liquidity aggregation within market microstructure, crucial for optimal capital efficiency.](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/precision-engineered-institutional-digital-asset-derivatives-rfq-core.jpg)

This launch systemically validates the regulated product pathway for a broader spectrum of digital assets, enhancing market access.

- 
### [Trump Pardons Binance Founder CZ, Bitcoin Surges past $111k](https://options.greeks.live/news/trump-pardons-binance-founder-cz-bitcoin-surges-past-111k/)
![Central institutional Prime RFQ, a segmented sphere, anchors digital asset derivatives liquidity. Intersecting beams signify high-fidelity RFQ protocols for multi-leg spread execution, price discovery, and counterparty risk mitigation. A smaller sphere denotes dark pool dynamics.](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/institutional-digital-asset-derivatives-cross-asset-rfq-execution-hub.jpg)

The executive pardon of Binance's founder signals evolving regulatory postures, potentially de-risking institutional engagement within digital asset markets.

- 
### [Executive Order Unlocks $12.2 Trillion 401(K) Capital for Crypto](https://options.greeks.live/news/executive-order-unlocks-12-2-trillion-401k-capital-for-crypto/)
![A scratched blue sphere, representing market microstructure and liquidity pool for digital asset derivatives, encases a smooth teal sphere, symbolizing a private quotation via RFQ protocol. An institutional-grade structure suggests a Prime RFQ facilitating high-fidelity execution and managing counterparty risk.](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/institutional-rfq-protocols-optimizing-digital-asset-derivative-execution-microstructure.jpg)

This strategic regulatory shift establishes a new pathway for substantial institutional capital deployment into digital assets, optimizing portfolio diversification and risk management frameworks.

- 
### [Crypto Funds Secure $2.5 Billion Inflows Fueling Market Growth](https://options.greeks.live/news/crypto-funds-secure-2-5-billion-inflows-fueling-market-growth/)
![Two smooth, teal spheres, representing institutional liquidity pools, precisely balance a metallic object, symbolizing a block trade executed via RFQ protocol. This depicts high-fidelity execution, optimizing price discovery and capital efficiency within a Principal's operational framework for digital asset derivatives.](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/precision-execution-bridging-institutional-liquidity-pools-via-rfq-protocol-for-optimized-digital-asset-derivatives-price-discovery.jpg)

This capital influx validates digital asset investment frameworks, signaling robust systemic confidence and enhanced market liquidity for institutional participants.

- 
### [Dogecoin ETF Set for September 11 Launch, Signals Market Evolution](https://options.greeks.live/news/dogecoin-etf-set-for-september-11-launch-signals-market-evolution/)
![A sleek conduit, embodying an RFQ protocol and smart order routing, connects two distinct, semi-spherical liquidity pools. Its transparent core signifies an intelligence layer for algorithmic trading and high-fidelity execution of digital asset derivatives, ensuring atomic settlement.](https://options.greeks.live/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/institutional-digital-asset-derivatives-execution-engine-bridging-diverse-liquidity-pools-via-high-fidelity-rfq-protocol-orchestration.jpg)

The impending Dogecoin ETF launch signifies a critical juncture in digital asset integration, providing a regulated conduit for broader institutional capital deployment.

---

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---

**Original URL:** https://options.greeks.live/news/hayes-predicts-crypto-surge-post-treasury-account-fill/
